Drones: What is Next for World Military Apparatus Race?

Boubacar Amadou CISSE

In today's world, where superpowers are fighting for control of geopolitics, the drive for military progress is far from unnoticed. Over the past two decades, many countries have injected exacerbating funds into technological research for modern military equipment. Among the newly developed armaments, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) – commonly known as drones – have attracted special attention. While countries like the US seemed to have taken the lead, it has become undeniable that many other states – such as Iran – are catching up. The big question now is where the research will take us and which country, or countries, will dominate the sector.

Drones are components of a complex weapon system called the Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS), which includes a ground controller communicating with the unmanned vehicle. Drones are used in sectors other than defence: agriculture, research and education, entertainment, etc.

Quick History

The first recorded use of an unmanned aerial vehicle for combat occurred in July 1849 when it served as a balloon carrier (the precursor of the aircraft carrier); This was the first offensive use of air power in naval aviation. Austrian forces besieging Venice attempted to float some 200 incendiary balloons, each carrying a 24- to 30-pound bomb to be dropped from the balloon with a time fuse over the besieged city. In the real sense of the term, Britain and the US produced the first unmanned vehicles during World War I. In March 1917, Britain tested their small radio-controlled aircraft called the Aerial Target, and in October 1918, the United States tested their aerial torpedo known as the Kettering Bug. Both performed satisfactorily in flight tests but were not sent into service during the war. During WWII, Germany developed and deployed several unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) models, including the Argus As 292 and the jet-powered V-1 flying bomb.

The post-World War II era has seen a rise in the development of UAVs because of investment from many countries, especially UK and USA. In its efforts to win the Vietnam War, the United States tried to employ a variety of remote-controlled aircraft. In the 1970s, after the Arab governments shot down some of Israel's jets, it resorted to using relatively advanced UAVs in its war against the Arab countries. In fact, Israel employed UAVs to render the Syrian air defence utterly ineffective at the outset of the 1982 Lebanon War. The United States expanded its manufacturing of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the 1980s and 1990s as part of a plan to develop smaller military hardware. US and Israeli firms have collaborated on several productions in the past. Consequently,  we saw a boom in UAV manufacturing in the United States during the 1990s.

Photo: The UK's Aerial Target (source: IWM)

After the United States began using them in its war in Afghanistan in 2001, UAVs gained widespread attention. Numerous observers have noted that the first drone strike targeted al-Qaeda senior military commander Mohammed Atef, who was murdered among seven others by the US's Predator- the UAV system began service in 1995 and saw battle in the wars in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bosnia, 1999 NATO bombing of Yugoslavia, the Iraq War, Yemen, the 2011 Libyan civil war, the 2014 intervention in Syria, and Somalia.

The Race

With their less spacious structure, the development of drones has allowed armies to access war zones without risking the lives of their soldiers or wasting the cost of larger warplanes; They are also used in reconnaissance and surveillance missions with sophisticated cameras and sensors. While incredibly accurate in their shots, some are remotely piloted, and others are programmed targets.

Nowadays, with the technology spread all over the world, drones are used by many countries in their defence systems. The US still leads the league, but many other countries are filling in the gaps with special drone programs.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has shown how necessary drones are on the battlefield; it has also unveiled some countries' technological progress. When Iran supplied drones to Russia, it left many people with surprises. However, it began investing in technology as early as 1985 with its spy drones sent to Iraq. Since then, it has, against many odds, developed its UAV technologies. The incident also raised attention to loitering munitions, also called suicide drones or kamikaze drones, because of their ability to wait quietly in the vicinity of a target location for some time before launching a strike like a missile.

Meanwhile, Türkiye, a neutral party between Russia and Ukraine, has provided drones to the latter country. This also drew attention to Turkey's rapidly growing unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) sector. In spite of purchasing and renting UAVs from the United States, Germany, and Israel between 1989 and 2007, Türkiye desperately sought its independence after a series of sabotage, incompatibility, and threat to its national sovereignty. Türkiye is now on the list of drone makers thanks to the efforts of domestic companies like Baykar and TUSAŞ.

A 2019 analysis from New York's Bard College estimates that more than 30,000 unmanned aircraft are in use now; however, the confirmed number is around 21,000. According to the paper, 63 nations are known to operate an inventory of unmanned aircraft systems built up almost entirely or entirely of systems manufactured abroad. As of 2019, Chinese-made drones are used in 32 countries, Israeli-made ones are used in 39, and U.S.-made ones are used in 49. As a result, these three nations are at the top of the list. The intricacy of owning a foreign-made drone is that images are frequently passed to the country of origin, making it difficult to oppose the nation's interests. Since then, many countries have tried their hands at drone production, with varying degrees of success, including Pakistan, Turkey, Iran, Russia, Taiwan, and India. At present, just seven countries currently produce active Class III / Medium-Altitude Long-Endurance (MALE) system UAVs, which are drones weighing more than 600 kilogrammes (typically used in combat), equipped with missiles or laser-guided bombs, with a range of over 1,000 miles, an endurance of 24 hours or more, and a top speed of 300 kilometres per hour or more. This includes the USA, China, Israel, France, the UAE, Iran, and Turkey.

Photo: Turkish Bayraktar TB2

Many nations are spending money to acquire drones in an age marked by uprisings and various forms of terrorism. While the United States, Israel, and China have traditionally dominated the industry, Turkey is quickly emerging as a formidable competitor, particularly in Africa and the Muslim world. Mali, an increasing adversary of France, received three Bayraktar TB2 drones from Turkey a month ago, becoming the country's 27th customer.

Conclusion: The Future

The technology sector has one of the fastest rates of development. Modern drones can determine the aftermath of a military conflict. Nevertheless, accelerating growth of AI technology, it is somehow easy to show where the future of drones lies and to predict the implications of this. In addition to drones, unmanned aircraft carriers are reportedly in production in some militarily developed countries; they will be imperative support for military service. They will be remotely controlled on the sea and could perform important missions.

While the trade of UAVs brings millions of dollars to the coffers of the origin countries, the political advantages it gives these countries are often underplayed. Nevertheless, it is irrefutable that many countries are bridging the gap with the United States by investing heavily in research and technology in order to develop an advanced defence system. With today's diplomatic turmoil, military conflicts are no scantier. Modern weapons such as drones are increasingly being used in conflict zones. While this may be a sad development, considering that conflict is part of human history and preparation for war seems to be the greatest guarantor of peace, our countries need to venture into these technologies. To say the least, building military capacities is no longer limited to having heavily-bodied men and gigantic hardware; they now require, more than ever, having intelligent people and utilising their talents.

Meanwhile, talking about the ethics of using drones in war, especially when they could activate strikes themselves, as do Kamikaze drones, authorities need to look into these and make necessary corrections and improvements. Additionally, as the US has severally been reported to do in the middle east, abuse of drones must be spoken against. Attacks are, at their best, supposed to achieve greater peace, not to cause more agony to the people.  

Finally, we must discuss drones' practical applications outside military operations. Drones have advanced to the point where they can now accomplish missions that would be physically impossible for humans. They can be utilised to effectively support firefighting operations, agricultural productivity, emergency medical care, enforce environmental regulations, and combat criminality. Possibly even more so than with military UAVs, nations should put money into these areas of the industry.