The Looming War on Lebanon

Shahzada Rahim

Since the fall of the Ottoman Empire in the aftermath of the First World War, the boundaries of the contemporary Middle East were redrawn by the Western imperial powers. The prime example of European imperial legacy in the Middle East can be traced to the infamous Sykes-Picot agreement, a secret pact between imperial France and Britain. The fundamental logic behind the Sykes-Picot agreement was to restructure the territorial dominions of the Ottoman Empire across demographic and geographical lines. The outcome of the Sykes-Picot agreement was the division of the Levant region into artificial states, such as the creation of Israel, Lebanon and Jordan to continue their legacy in the region through Divide et Impera (Divide and Rule). However, despite the end of European colonialism in the Middle East after the end of World War II, the after-effects of the Sykes-Picot agreement still haunt the socio-political landscape of the Middle East. One of the major aftermaths of this secret pact was the creation of the State of Israel on the Palestinian lands through mass expulsion and genocide of indigenous Palestinians, which became a permanent dagger in the heart of the Muslim Ummah.

When the French gained control of the Levant region as a mandate from the League of Nations as part of Sykes-Picot, imperial France appointed General Henri Gouraud as the French High Commissioner in Syria and Lebanon. It is documented that When General Henri Gouraud entered Syria as High Commissioner, he allegedly went to the Tomb of Saladin, kicked it, and said: Awake, Saladin, we are back. The purpose of this symbolic colonial gesture was to tell the world that we had destroyed the Ottoman Empire, and now we will do what we wanted to do with the Muslim lands. The destruction of the Ottoman Caliphate was the long-standing dream of the European imperial powers, who came under the control of powerful Jewish bankers at the beginning of the 19^th century. The Jewish families wanted to create the State of Isreal at any cost at all costs, and the only barrier before them was the Ottoman Caliphate, which was ruling the Muslim lands in the Middle East. However, at the beginning of the First World War, the powerful Jewish families funded the imperial powers in Europe to destroy the Caliphate and create conditions for the establishment of the State of Israel, which certainly occurred during the middle of the War. The infamous Belfour Declaration and Sykes-Picot were the two major turning points in reshaping and restructuring the Middle East after the destruction of the Ottoman Empire.

Today, the Middle East is on the brink of a regional catastrophe due to the brutal genocidal war against Palestinians in Gaza since October 7 Last year, which claimed the lives of more than 100,000 innocent lives, including women and Children. Since the beginning of the Israel onslaught against the innocent Civilians in Gaza on October 7, Hezbollah has been actively engaged in confrontation with the Zionist state on the Southern border. According to Israeli Media, due to continued attacks from Hezbollah against the Zionist Occupation Forces on the Southern front, more than 100,000 Zionist settlers living in the occupied towns in southern Palestine are displaced and living in refugee camps around Tel Aviv. Now, due to its failure in its war against Hamas resistance Forces in Gaza, which destroyed the pride of the Zionist colonial regime of War Criminal Netanyahu. To divert the attention from his failure, the Zionist regime is planning for a full-fledged war against Lebanon. The intricate and often volatile relationship between Israel and Lebanon has seen a notable escalation in recent times, particularly after October 7th. Historically, the two nations have experienced periods of intense conflict and uneasy peace, largely driven by territorial disputes, political instability, and the presence of militant groups such as Hezbollah. The events following October 7th have reignited concerns about the potential for another war, raising questions about the likelihood of such an outcome in the near future.

One of the primary factors influencing the probability of war is the activity of Hezbollah. As a powerful political and military entity in Lebanon, Hezbollah's actions significantly impact the dynamics between the two countries. Recent reports indicate increased military exercises and rhetoric from Hezbollah, suggesting preparation for a possible confrontation.  Furthermore, the role of external actors cannot be ignored. Regional powers such as Iran, which supports Hezbollah, and the United States, a key ally of Israel, play significant roles in shaping the strategies and responses of both nations. Any changes in the policies or actions of these external actors can either exacerbate or mitigate the tensions. For instance, increased Iranian support for Hezbollah could embolden the group to take more aggressive actions, while heightened U.S. diplomatic efforts might help de-escalate the situation.

There are two major reasons why the criminal regime of Benjamin Netanyahu wants to start a war with Hezbollah. First, the onslaught on Gaza by the Israeli occupation forces after October 7 turned out to be a disaster for the apartheid regime. Hamas humiliated the occupation forces by destroying almost 20% of the strength of the Israel Occupation Forces (IOF); as per reports, the Seven-month non-stop military campaign against Hamas in Gaza resulted in 3,000 deaths and 80,000 severely injured among the occupation Forces. This was a huge catastrophe for the apartheid state since the total strength of the IOF before the Gaza Campaign was around 300,000, but the Seventh-month brutal campaign cost them 20% of their strength, which bears severe consequences for the apartheid regimes for the years to come. Due to the failure to defeat Hamas in Gaza, the criminal regime of Netanyahu is now trying to divert the failure by starting the war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, which, according to many analysts, would mark the end of the State of Israel. Despite the economic and human cost, the Netanyahu regime is actively lobbying in the U.S. and Europe to gain financial and military support for his military aggression against Lebanon.

Second, Israel, despite heavy logistic, military and economic support from the U.S. and Europe, failed to achieve its goal in Gaza, which claimed tens of thousands of innocent lives. Now, in order to directly involve the U.S. militarily in the region, especially against Iran, Netanyahu is attempting to open a new front against Hezbollah in Lebanon, which would create a huge catastrophe in the region. The direct engagement of the U.S. in the military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon on the side of Israel means the beginning of a major full-scale regional war in the Middle East. The bloodthirsty appetite of the Zionist regime shows the desperation of the apartheid colonial regime, which is on the brink of collapse. To avert the imminent collapse, the Zionist regime is attempting to trigger a full-scale regional war in the Middle East, which certainly could end in a nuclear catastrophe. If a war broke out between Israel and Lebanon, then it might be the beginning of the end, which would probably engage the whole region in the catastrophe. Hence, any war between Israel and Lebanon is a calm before the storm.