Is a Proxy-War going on in the Sahel and West Africa?

Ifeoluwa Siddiq Oyelami

The recent announcement by Niger’s military regime to sever ties with Ukraine, mirroring Mali’s earlier decision, has drawn significant attention. This move follows Ukraine’s involvement with groups that Mali labels as terrorist organisations, which have been engaged in conflicts against Malian forces and their Wagner Group allies. Notably, on July 28, an attack on Malian-Wagner forces resulted in the deaths of up to 84 Russian and 47 Malian soldiers. The following day, Ukraine’s military intelligence reported that “the rebels received not only crucial information but also other forms of support” to facilitate the attack. The Ukrainian ambassadors to Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, and Liberia quickly recognised the incident. Similarly, the Ukrainian embassy in Senegal posted a now-deleted video on Facebook featuring the Ukrainian ambassador seemingly endorsing support for the rebels. This prompted the Senegalese government to summon the ambassador for an explanation.

After expelling France and its allies, Mali’s military government turned to Russia for military cooperation. Well, the government has been under embargo from neighbouring countries pushing for a swift return to “democracy.” So, there is no hope for regional cooperation. With its forces stretched thin by the war in Ukraine, Russia has outsourced much of its military engagement abroad to Wagner, deploying both this private military company and numerous engineers to Mali. As a result, Mali has gained international recognition as a Russian ally and consistently votes against Ukraine in UN resolutions. This raises the question: why is Ukraine involving itself in Mali’s counterterrorism efforts? Especially as defeating Russia from within Mali’s borders is an implausible goal. These developments suggest the possible emergence of a proxy war in the Sahel region or perhaps a broader conflict across Africa. However, the roots of these events extend further back than recent headlines indicate.

On September 27, 2023, Aaron Y. Zelin, a noted expert on jihadist groups, testified before a U.S. House committee, highlighting the expulsion of French interests from the Sahel and suggesting that “Washington should prepare for the possibility that Niger could request the removal of U.S. forces,” referring specifically to the American drone base. This prediction has since come to pass, with the U.S. also being expelled. In his testimony, Zelin also emphasised the importance of decisively confronting the Wagner Group and its logistical operations. With his extensive knowledge of militant activities in the Sahel, Zelin pointed out that Tuareg militants might align with one of the dominant jihadist factions in the region. These factions are primarily the JNIM (Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen), which is affiliated with al-Qaeda, and IS-GS (Islamic State in the Greater Sahara), which pledges allegiance to ISIS.

Almost a year after Zelin’s testimony, Tuareg forces, in alliance with JNIM, succeeded in overpowering Malian-Wagner soldiers. It is striking that the country receiving billions in U.S. military aid over the past two years is implicated in this attack. However, it would be simplistic to attribute these events solely to Zelin’s predictions. Intelligence analysis does not operate on a singular narrative; multiple factors are at play. The Sahel and Sudan are engulfed in deep crises, with militaries, rebel groups, and jihadists all pursuing their “right causes.” Yet, these actors often function as mere pawns in a larger geopolitical game.

In his testimony, Zelin drew a parallel between the situation in the Sahel and the Syrian conflict post-2011, noting that both involve complex power struggles. Yes! such struggles that fighters on different sides claim to be pursuing “right causes.” Zelin also suggested that Wagner’s presence in the Sahel effectively blocks Western nations from exerting significant influence on the ground, thus limiting U.S. options. Given this context, it is reasonable to argue that the U.S. and its allies have used proxies in various conflicts. The Syrian war, for example, involved U.S. support for groups like the YPG and its allies’ interactions with elements of ISIS.

Several analysts have suggested that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is extending its reach into Africa. In Sudan, Wagner reportedly supports the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) against the Sudanese army. Additionally, the BBC reported—though the videos remain “unverified”—that Ukrainian special forces have conducted drone strikes and other attacks against RSF and Wagner fighters in Sudan. Wassim Nasr, a specialist on the Sahel, has indicated that Tuareg rebels, earlier in 2024, sent a contingent to Ukraine for training, including instruction on operating miniature drones, which are widely used in the Ukrainian conflict. Meanwhile, Russia had, in October 2023, alleged that the U.S. had relocated parts of its “unfinished” Ukrainian biological weapons research projects to Africa. The U.S. has countered this claim, stating that the laboratory’s purpose is to “predict bioterrorism and outbreaks of diseases.”

The fragmentation of the West Africa structure into two distinct entities—the Western-allied ECOWAS and the Russia-allied Confederation of Sahel States—has raised significant concerns. These countries used to work together to ensure regional security, but now they view each other as potential threats. In August 2023, Nigeria, whose president has strong ties with French President Macron, expressed a determination to deploy military forces to Niger to restore democratic order. However, the protection of democracy seems to be a secondary concern. The primary objective appears to be reinstating the ousted President Bazoum, which would reinstate favourable uranium deals with France and potentially fast-track Nigeria’s trans-Saharan pipeline to Europe. As it is known, this pipeline project is expected to disrupt Russia’s market.

There is a lot to fight for in West Africa and the Sahel, but who is fighting the fight? West Africa and the Sahel are engulfed in a scramble of conflict and instability, but the actual dynamics of who is driving these battles remain complex. Despite African states officially maintaining neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the stakeholders from this Slavic war are increasingly opening a new front in Sudanic Africa. The regional “big brother,” Nigeria, finds itself in a precarious situation, having recently experienced significant protests with overt displays of Russian allegiance. In the aftermath, the Nigerian government announced freezing $37 million in cryptocurrency linked to suspected protest organisers. Meanwhile, the terror attacks that have long plagued the Sahel are now spreading to Togo and Benin with unprecedented intensity. However, regional cooperation remains elusive as each country pursues its own version of “right causes,” which complicates efforts to address the escalating violence collectively.

It might indeed be time for West African leaders and communities to reassess the situation and work towards greater regional unity. In reality, many so-called “right causes” have become battlegrounds exploited by predators. The involvement of external actors does not make them sympathetic to the local causes. It is just exploitation. JNIM working with Ukraine (albeit via the Tuaregs) despite its historical takfir of Muslim states collaborating with non-Muslim entities reveals a disjunction between its proclaimed ideology and its interest-based commitments. And this is indeed a problem with many of the so-called jihadi groups. Again, Ukraine helping the Tuaregs against Russia’s Wagner is not for the love of Tuareg’s cause. Notably, Wagner’s contract with the African states, too, has not been the best engagement. It has been with a lot of human violations, undermining the local populations they are supposed to assist. It suggests that the path forward lies in fostering genuine collaboration among local communities and leaders, resisting the manipulation and exploitation by external powers, and working towards sustainable, inclusive solutions that prioritise the welfare of the people over self and imperial interests.