Sudan Crisis: Between Personal Aspirations and External Catalysts, Is There a Pathway to Peace?

Semiu Babatunde Ilori

As the humanitarian crisis in Sudan grows more dire, concerns are mounting that foreign actors with vested interests are complicating the situation, making it harder to end the 14-month war that has displaced millions and pushed parts of the country to the brink of famine. The international community has rallied to demand an end to the fighting, with calls from the United Nations, the African Union, the Arab League, and East Africa's Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).

Efforts to broker peace have been led by various powers, including the United States, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, but their cease-fire agreements have been short-lived and ineffective. IGAD's initiative to send presidents from Kenya, South Sudan, and Djibouti to Khartoum for mediation has yet to materialize. The prolonged crisis has raised concerns that external influences are manipulating events from behind the scenes. Despite apparent stalemates, it is essential to uncover the hidden agendas of these external forces and shed light on their true interests. By doing so, we can better understand complex dynamics.

Why Sudan?

Sudan's unique blend of Arab and African cultures, rich resources, and strategic location makes it a prized target for external manipulation. The country's Islamic identity and historical ties to Arab nations have significant implications for regional politics. However, Western powers seek to exploit these dynamics to disrupt the peace and hinder the development of an Islamic Republic. This covert agenda is part of a broader ideological war waged against Islam and Muslims, leveraging Western powers as pawns to achieve sinister objectives.

Moreso, Sudan's economic realities, including vast oil reserves, fertile land, and strategic trade routes, attract external interests. As Africa's third-largest gold producer, with an industry worth several billions annually, the country's resources are coveted by Western powers. These external actors aim to exploit Sudan's resources to fuel their own development, leaving the country devastated.

Notably, the strategic location on the Red Sea, bordering Egypt, Ethiopia, and South Sudan, amplifies Sudan's importance, as its stability directly impacts regional security. According to American University's Nuamah, Sudan's appeal to outside actors stems from its strategic location on the Red Sea, bridging sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East; possession of valuable natural resources, such as gold; and its proximity to fragile states in a turbulent region. The Red Sea's access to the Suez Canal, one of the world's busiest waterways, further enhances Sudan's geopolitical significance.

The Central Figures in the Conflict

Sudan's military landscape is dominated by two influential figures: General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagolo, also known as Hemedti. Al-Burhan, born in 1960 in Al-Jazira state, graduated from the Sudanese Military College and rose through the ranks to become a key player in Sudan's military. His primary objectives are to maintain military control, ensure national stability, and protect Sudan's interests.

In contrast, Hemedti, born in 1973 in the Darfur region, leads the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a powerful paramilitary group. His main aims are to expand RSF's power, secure autonomy for Darfur, and address long-standing historical grievances.

As the ambitions of Sudan's rival leaders, Hemedti and Al-Burhan, reached a fever pitch, they wove a intricate web of alliances, compromising local interests. Despite the ongoing war, both leaders continue to engage in aggressive diplomacy.

In January, Hemedti embarked on a whistle-stop tour of African nations, visiting Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, Ghana, and South Africa. This came shortly after Al-Burhan's similar regional tour, as both generals sought to garner support from key regional players. Observers see these maneuvers as attempts to position themselves as viable leaders. However, this diplomatic posturing reveals a disturbing truth: both leaders prioritize external interests over Sudan's well-being, jeopardizing the country's future.

The External Actors and their Interests

Unsurprisingly, Western powers played a significant role in ousting Al-Bashir's administration, purportedly to install a democratically elected government. However, many regional powers oppose democratic foundations in Sudan and will undermine any peaceful transition.

The recent clash between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and RSF was inevitable, given years of international legitimation of these military rivals as political actors. Experts like Micheal Walsh have highlighted that relationships between key players and foreign actors predate the current civil war.

Since Sudan's conflict erupted in April 2023, foreign powers have backed rival forces, further complicating the situation. Notably, Sudan has strengthened ties with Russia, which has reassessed its connection with the RSF. Russia's relationship with the RSF dates back to 2019, when it supported General Hemedti's coup through its infamous mercenary, the Wagner Group.

Disturbingly, the UAE is the primary foreign player driving the conflict in Sudan, providing extensive support to the RSF. Without UAE's backing, the RSF's war efforts would be significantly diminished. It should be noted that Sudan is crucial to the UAE's strategic ambitions in Africa and the Middle East, aiming to establish political and economic dominance while suppressing democratic aspirations. Since 2015, the UAE has recruited fighters from Sudanese factions for its Yemen conflict; become Sudan's primary gold importer; and as well invested in multibillion-dollar port development projects along Sudan's Red Sea coast.

By supporting the RSF, the UAE has sabotaged Sudan's democratic transition following Omar al-Bashir's 2019 ouster. Reports indicate that the UAE has established logistical operations to supply RSF with weapons through networks in Libya, Chad, Central African Republic, South Sudan, Uganda, Haftar, and Wagner militias. Moreso, UAE also disguised armaments and supplies as humanitarian aid; hosts RSF's business, finance, logistics, and PR operations; and as well provides medical treatment to injured RSF fighters in Abu Dhabi military hospitals.

Notably, Sudan's conflict has evolved, with information disinformation emerging as a potent and destructive force. For weeks, social media platforms have been awash with false narratives, as rival forces – SAF and RSF – engage in a fierce online battle for control of the narrative. With RSF heavily relies on Twitter, employing inauthentic behavior to spread its agenda and shape local and international opinion. SAF as well utilizes X to counter RSF claims and boost morale with exaggerated or false victory claims.

Fake news and misinformation have long plagued Sudan's digital landscape, escalating during periods of armed conflict and political unrest. The current crisis highlights the dangers of information manipulation and underscores the urgent need for critical thinking, media literacy, fact-checking initiatives and robust social media regulation. The situation also serves as a stark reminder of the critical role informed citizens and responsible social media practices play in mitigating the harmful effects of disinformation.

A Pathway to Peace

The situation in Sudan is dire and requires immediate attention. For the conflict to subdue, the SAF leadership, particularly General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, must take decisive action. This involves engaging directly with RSF commander Hemedti and distancing himself from the previous regime's agenda. This direct talk between al-Burhan and Hemedti could pave the way for;

• Ceasefire: An immediate end to hostilities, saving countless lives and allowing for humanitarian aid and rebuilding.
• Political Process: A negotiated settlement, addressing the root causes of the conflict and establishing a stable government.

Also, the Jeddah peace talks, facilitated by Saudi Arabia, previously stalled due to alleged ceasefire violations by the RSF. These renewed efforts could yield positive results provided all the parties approach these talks with sincerity and commitment.

The international community must also acknowledge the complex interests driving this conflict thereby promote:

• Inclusive Dialogue: Encouraging all stakeholders to participate in negotiations.
• Reforms: Supporting Sudan's transition to representative governance.
• Economic Development: Addressing economic grievances and promoting sustainable growth.

Only through collective action can Sudan overcome its challenges and emerge stronger, more resilient, and truly independent.