Russia has become the first major power to officially recognise the Taliban government that took control of Afghanistan in 2021. Hailed as a “bold decision” by Kabul, Moscow’s move represents more than a mere diplomatic gesture: it signals a shift in the global stance towards the Taliban and sets the stage for a new web of alliances and rivalries in a region perpetually reshaped by security concerns and competing interests.

Bitter Enemies to Pragmatic Partners

To grasp the significance of Russia’s decision, one must consider the fraught history that binds Moscow and Kabul:

• In 1979, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan to prop up a faltering communist regime, triggering a decade-long conflict that cost some 15,000 Soviet lives.
• By 1992, Russia shuttered its embassy in Kabul after attacks by armed groups made its presence untenable.
• In 1996, the Taliban brutally executed former President Mohammed Najibullah, a long-time Soviet ally, while he sought refuge in a UN compound.
• Throughout the 1990s, Russia actively supported the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance under Ahmad Shah Massoud.
• Following the 9/11 attacks, Moscow cooperated with the US-led “war on terror,” opening its airspace and sharing intelligence.
• In 2003, Russia formally listed the Taliban as a terrorist organisation.

Yet the tide began to turn in recent years. Alarmed by the rise of ISIS-Khorasan on its doorstep, Moscow started to reassess its priorities. With the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, Russia embarked on a more open engagement, welcoming Taliban delegations to economic forums in St. Petersburg in 2022 and 2024. The Russian Supreme Court’s decision in April 2024 to remove the Taliban from its terrorist list cleared the final obstacle to formal recognition.

In this light, Moscow’s decision is less a sudden pivot than the culmination of years of strategic recalibration, driven by hard-headed geopolitical calculus and shifting security imperatives.

What Does Recognition Mean?

According to Russia’s Foreign Ministry, official ties with the Taliban will pave the way for deeper cooperation in counterterrorism, efforts to curb the ISIS-Khorasan threat, and joint ventures in energy, transport, and infrastructure. These projects promise to expand Moscow’s economic and political footprint across Central Asia.

For the Taliban, the diplomatic breakthrough is tantamount to a legitimacy victory. Hailing it as a “historic achievement,” they hope it will encourage others to follow suit, easing their international isolation.

Who Might Be Next?

Several countries have already engaged the Taliban pragmatically, if not formally:

• China has hosted Taliban officials and signed a 25-year deal to extract oil from the Amu Darya basin, though it stops short of formal recognition.
• Iran, despite deep ideological and sectarian rifts, has established security channels and political contacts.
• Pakistan, once the Taliban’s staunchest backer, now navigates a tense relationship due to cross-border attacks by the Pakistani Taliban (TTP).
• India, long wary of the Taliban, has cautiously opened lines of communication.

Analysts suggest that Central Asian neighbours like Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, driven by trade and security concerns, could be among the first to copy Moscow’s move. China’s stance, meanwhile, may be shaped by regional balance.

What Might Change?

Russia’s move is likely to set off a chain reaction with far-reaching implications:

1. The Taliban will gain a measure of recognition on the global stage, complicating efforts to isolate them.
2. Russia’s sway in Afghanistan will deepen, replacing the West's weakening influence.
3. Bodies like the UN may face growing calls to treat the Taliban as the de facto Afghan government.
4. With no sign that the Taliban will ease restrictions on “women and fundamental freedoms,” Moscow’s embrace is already drawing fire from rights advocates.

A Calculus of Interests

By and large, Moscow-Kabul’s romance is a story less about shared ideology than cold pragmatism. Russia’s recognition of a group it once branded terrorists illustrates a timeless truth in international affairs: interests, not sentiments, dictate alliances. With the West largely disengaged, Moscow spies an opportunity to curb extremist spillover, secure vital energy corridors, and cement its role as a power broker in Eurasia.

In the short term, other capitals must weigh whether to follow Russia’s lead or adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach. But lost in these geopolitical manoeuvres are the Afghan people themselves, still trapped as pawns on a grand chessboard, their futures traded for security guarantees and commercial contracts.

However, will the Taliban-led government be able to translate this diplomatic opening into tangible gains for ordinary Afghans, or will it become a tool serving the interests of the great powers? Only time will tell the answer to this question.

*The views expressed in this content are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of İdrakpost.