Population is a key factor shaping any nation’s economic, social, and cultural structure. Once marked by high population growth, Türkiye is now seeing that rate decline. According to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), the population growth rate has fallen from 2.8 per thousand to 1.1 per thousand in recent years. This shift will significantly affect Türkiye’s demographic makeup and economic future. A country’s population can be its greatest asset if well-educated and employed. However, it can become a serious challenge if not adequately educated or integrated into the workforce.
For much of the 20th century, Türkiye encouraged population growth, but since 1960, policies have shifted toward slowing this trend. After 2007, there was a renewed emphasis on increasing the population, though the necessary initiatives were never fully realised.
In the post-World War II era, the Rockefeller Foundation, alongside the UN, supported global efforts to reduce population growth, funding countries that adopted population control measures. Türkiye was among those who received this support, with both government agencies and NGOs involved in these efforts. Today, population planning continues to be a priority for many developing nations, often with backing from the UN.
It should be remembered that at the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development, organised by the UN and held in Egypt, Indonesia, not Türkiye, was lauded as the most successful Muslim-majority nation managing its population growth. So, what has led to decreased Turkish population growth since then?
Reasons for the Decline in Population Growth in Türkiye
1. Increasing Education Levels:One of the key factors driving Türkiye’s declining fertility rates is the growing participation in higher education. As more people attend university and pursue careers, marriage is often delayed, which in turn reduces the likelihood of having children. The increasing emphasis on higher education, with a growing number of individuals earning university degrees, has contributed to this shift in societal norms.
2. Urbanization and Living Conditions:Migration from rural areas to urban centres has also significantly affected the country’s demographic changes. People relocating to cities tend to have fewer children, primarily due to higher living costs and economic pressures. In rural areas, where agriculture and animal husbandry were the primary sources of livelihood, a larger population was seen as beneficial for the family budget.
However, the birth rate has declined following increased migration to cities after 1950 and the government’s failure to control this. Education reforms, such as “mobile education” in 1998, further contributed to the migration and decreased rural population.
3. Economic Factors:Rising living costs, including expenses related to housing, healthcare, and education, have made families more cautious about having children. Economic uncertainty and a growing focus on material well-being have led many individuals to delay or forgo having children.
While financial concerns often influence family planning, it’s important to note that the core teaching of Islam is that Allah guarantees sustenance. This concept has historically encouraged larger families. However, as materialism and individualism have risen, fertility rates, even among religious communities, have declined.
4. Women’s Participation in the Workforce:The increasing participation of women in the labour force is another crucial factor in declining birth rates. Career ambitions, coupled with employer demands, have led many women to delay or forgo having children.
European Union funding has further encouraged women to join the workforce, and government policies, such as positive discrimination in civil service jobs, have increased female employment rates. As the Rockefeller Foundation notes, employing more women not only boosts the economy and tax revenues but also contributes to broader social development by investing in future generations.
5. Rising Age of Marriage and Childbearing:The average age of marriage and childbirth in Türkiye has been steadily increasing. This trend, with later marriages and delayed childbearing, has contributed significantly to the country’s declining fertility rate. In fact, the number of children born per woman, which stood at 6 in the 1990s, has now dropped to just 1.5.
6. Positive Discrimination for Women Under the Istanbul Convention:Some novel legal frameworks, like the so-called Istanbul Convention, have significantly shifted family dynamics in Türkiye. The law’s emphasis on the woman’s statement as the basis for legal decisions in marriage has led to a rise in divorce rates. Critics have argued that this not only disrupts traditional family roles but also leads to emotional decision-making.
Although the Turkish government claims to have withdrawn from the convention since March 2021, the continued application of its principles continues to drive some men away from marriage.
7. Youth Migration: In 2023, approximately 159,000 young people between the ages of 20 and 24 left Türkiye to seek opportunities abroad. This migration is driven by a combination of factors, including the high number of university graduates facing insufficient employment prospects and a growing sense of disconnection from the homeland.
Despite Türkiye’s large number of educated young people, many find themselves unable to secure jobs that match their qualifications, prompting them to seek better opportunities in Western countries. These nations, often offering higher living standards, draw Türkiye’s best and brightest—such as doctors—who leave in search of career stability. For instance, since 2020, around 50,000 doctors have migrated to Germany, even as the country’s health system faces significant challenges.
Consequences
Since 2023, Türkiye’s demographic shift has become more evident. The decline in Türkiye’s population growth has led to an ageing population, increasing pressure on the pension system and health expenditures. A smaller, younger workforce may also reduce productivity and slow economic growth. Sectors such as agriculture, animal husbandry, and industry are already facing labour shortages, which will likely continue as the population ages.
The decrease in the youth population may also alter consumption habits, potentially contracting domestic market demand. As a result, Türkiye may need to reassess its immigration policies to maintain demographic and economic stability. It is known that migration plays a vital role in sectors like livestock breeding and industry, with Afghan and Syrian workers filling the gaps, respectively. However, in 2023, Türkiye saw a net outflow of 253,000 of these migrants.
Suggestions
To address the declining population, the nation should reorientate on the concept of family. Islamic values on the importance of maintaining strong family structures should be reemphasised. At the government level, the state should implement family-friendly policies, such as increasing maternity leave, providing nursery support, and offering flexible working hours for mothers. These measures can encourage higher birth rates by alleviating the burdens of parenting.
Additionally, compulsory education should be reduced. Intensives could be provided to encourage people to return to rural areas. Economic stability and higher income levels may reduce individuals’ future anxiety and positively influence their decisions to have children. The state could also consider aligning university admissions with labour market needs and enforcing strict measures against adultery, fornication, and immorality, thus creating a more supportive environment for family life.
Moreover, brilliant migration policies will help maintain a balanced labour force while fostering economic growth. As Türkiye faces demographic challenges, a comprehensive approach that integrates education, economic, and family policies is vital for addressing the implications of population decline. With the right incentives and a focus on Islamic values, the country can navigate the risks of an ageing population and secure sustainable development.
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